UK Energy Market Report
June 2, 2026
1. Executive Summary
As we navigate the current wholesale market environment, mid-market businesses continue to face volatility driven by geopolitical factors and shifting supply-side fundamentals. With front-month trading concluding, the market has shown upward movement across both gas and power curves, though liquidity remains thin in certain power contracts. While near-term demand is tempered by milder weather, the broader landscape remains sensitive to ongoing geopolitical tensions and the formalisation of supply-related agreements. Smarter Business remains committed to helping you navigate these conditions through disciplined contract timing and the use of Dataview for data-driven consumption insights.
2. Forward Curve Insight
The forward curve continues to show a pronounced seasonal structure, with winter contracts carrying a clear premium over the following summer periods. This reflects the market’s ongoing concern around winter demand, storage adequacy, LNG competition and supply disruption risk. This profile highlights the importance of strategic contract timing to mitigate the higher costs typically associated with winter-heavy consumption periods. Businesses should look to balance their contract end dates against these seasonal peaks to achieve greater price certainty.
3. UK Energy Market Price Snapshot – Electricity
Electricity prices across the curve have increased, supported by broader movements in European power markets. Recent sessions have seen upward moves, though liquidity remains thin. UK wind speeds remain variable, though they are largely expected to hover around or above seasonal averages in the coming weeks, providing necessary support for power supply.
| Contract £/MWh | 29 May 2026 | 28 May 2026 | Change D-1 vs D-2 | Current Prices | Change current vs D-1 |
| DA | 107.5 | 102.42 | 5.08 | 110.75 | 3.25 |
| Jul-26 | 99.18 | 100.43 | -1.25 | 103.2 | 4.02 |
| Aug-26 | 96.76 | 97.72 | -0.96 | 100.75 | 3.99 |
| Sep-26 | 99.48 | 100.25 | -0.77 | 103.6 | 4.12 |
| Q3-26 | 98.46 | 99.46 | -1 | 102.5 | 4.04 |
| Q4-26 | 102.03 | 103.16 | -1.13 | 106.2 | 4.17 |
| Win 26 | 100.3 | 102.06 | -1.76 | 104.5 | 4.2 |
| Sum 27 | 76.55 | 77.76 | -1.21 | 77.5 | 0.95 |
| Win 27 | 79.49 | 79.49 | 0 | 81 | 1.51 |
| Sum 28 | 61 | 61.43 | -0.43 | 62 | 1.00 |
| Win 28 | 69.69 | 69.37 | 0.32 | 70.5 | 0.81 |
4. UK Energy Market Price Snapshot – Gas
| Contract p/therm | 29 May 2026 | 28 May 2026 | Change D-1 vs D-2 | Current price (*) | Change current vs D-1 |
| DA | 110.5 | 111.9 | -1.4 | 118 | 7.5 |
| Jul-26 | 110.79 | 113.43 | -2.64 | 117.68 | 6.89 |
| Aug-26 | 111.04 | 113.8 | -2.76 | 117.58 | 6.54 |
| Sep-26 | 111.91 | 114.83 | -2.92 | 118.24 | 6.33 |
| Q3-26 | 111.24 | 114.01 | -2.77 | 117.66 | 6.42 |
| Q4-26 | 115.12 | 117.95 | -2.83 | 120.25 | 5.13 |
| Win 26 | 113.69 | 116.53 | -2.84 | 119.46 | 5.77 |
| Sum 27 | 83.14 | 85.09 | -1.96 | 91 | 7.86 |
| Win 27 | 84.55 | 86.3 | -1.75 | 93.5 | 8.95 |
| Sum 28 | 64.78 | 65.08 | -0.3 | 68.41 | 3.63 |
| Win 28 | 72.5 | 72.8 | -0.3 | 73.5 | 1.00 |
European natural gas spot prices saw a slight easing recently, pressured by milder weather, increased renewable generation, and healthy Norwegian supply levels. Prices remain sensitive to Middle East headlines, including reports of diplomatic progress, renewed military activity and uncertainty around shipping flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Norwegian flows have faced some disruption, and domestic UKCS production remains a critical component of the daily supply mix.
5. Procurement Strategy & Recommendations
A. October 2026 Contract Starts
For businesses with contracts starting in October 2026, we recommend securing a fixed contract now to lock in price certainty ahead of the winter season. The current market volatility and thin liquidity suggest that waiting may expose your business to unnecessary risk. Securing a fixed contract protects your budget against the upward pressures observed across the gas and power curves.
B. April 2027 Contract Starts
For April 2027 start dates, the market offers lower price points compared to the upcoming winter contracts, as evidenced by the seasonal drop in the forward curve. We recommend evaluating these contract options now to leverage the current forward pricing. While October 2026 contract starts provide immediate budget protection for the upcoming winter, April 2027 starts allow for a different risk profile, potentially benefiting from lower seasonal demand.
6. Risk & Opportunity Snapshot
- Risk: Ongoing geopolitical tensions and potential supply-side disruptions continue to drive market volatility.
- Opportunity: Using Dataview, your business can analyse consumption patterns to optimise capacity and reduce peak demand, directly impacting your bottom line.
7. Non Commodity Costs
Clients should note that non-commodity charges continue to represent a significant proportion of delivered electricity costs. These include DUoS, TNUoS, BSUoS, Renewables Obligation, CfD, Capacity Market, FiT and CCL. While many of these are not avoidable, clients can reduce exposure through consumption reduction, capacity optimisation, load shifting, peak-period avoidance and accurate HH data analysis through Dataview.
8. Reporting & Analytics
Effective energy management starts with visibility. Smarter Business’s Dataview platform is designed to provide mid-market businesses with the granular analytics required to make informed decisions. We encourage all clients to:
- Analyse Consumption Profiles: Identify when your business uses the most energy to avoid high-cost peak periods.
- Improve Visibility: Use data to validate usage and identify potential inefficiencies.
- Review Capacity: Ensure your contracted capacity matches your actual requirements to avoid unnecessary charges.
- Load Shifting: Where possible, move non-essential processes out of peak demand hours to reduce pressure on your supply and lower costs.
If you would like to understand how these market movements impact your business or how to access Dataview reporting, your Smarter Business account manager is on hand to guide you through your options.
